The Sea of Tension, Shifting Routes – 3 Alarms from the June 2025 Global Logistics Crisis

June 2025 has sent shockwaves across the global logistics industry.

From the seas to the skies, and across roads and railways,

the world’s supply chains are once again under siege.

At the heart of the disruption lie three forces: politics, pricing, and uncertainty.

This edition of STREAMLINE identifies three critical early warning signals and

outlines how logistics professionals must prepare for the second half of 2025.

Logistics & Supply Chain Strategy Backbriefing

STREAMLINE: The Sea of Tension, Shifting Routes – 3 Alarms from the June 2025 Global Logistics Crisis

(2025.06.22)

➀ Point of View | What Are the Signals of Crisis?

Three major issues have shaken global logistics this month:

🔴 Geopolitical Risk in the Middle East

-. Rising tension between Israel and Iran

-. Maersk suspends operations at Haifa port (June 20)

-. Marine insurance premiums triple in response

-. Jet fuel and overland diesel costs surge across Europe

🔴 Container Freight Rate Surge and Plateau

-. Asia → US West Coast FBX rates spiked by up to 98%

-. Some lanes exceeded $6,000/FEU, followed by a soft correction

-. MSC, among others, imposed Peak Season Surcharges from mid-June

🔴 Resurgence of the Trade War

-. Partial reactivation of U.S. Section 232/301 tariffs

-. Suspension of U.S.-China tariff negotiation

-. Surge in front-loading following end of tariff reprieve (May 12)

These issues all point to a single critical question for shippers and retailers: "When will my inventory arrive, and how much more will it cost?"

➁ Inside the Move | What’s Happening on the Ground?

✉️ Ocean Freight (Ports)

-. Haifa suspended (Maersk) → congestion at transshipment hubs like Valencia & Algeciras

-. Red Sea still under Houthi threat → "Operation Prosperity Guardian" continues

-. Northern Europe ports (e.g., Rotterdam, Hamburg) see 48–72 hour delays

✈️ Air Cargo

-. Rerouting to avoid Middle Eastern airspace → jet fuel prices spike 45–60%

-. Smaller freight operators struggling with cost spikes and limited alternatives

⛶️ Rail & Overland

-. Iraq-Turkey Development Road rail project near launch

-. Multimodal corridors through India-Iran-Azerbaijan gaining traction

-. TIR system expansion boosts cross-border inland trade

➂ Business Playbook | What Should Companies Do Now?

To navigate H2 2025, companies should prioritize the following:

🔵 Scenario-Based Risk Planning

-. Map out alternative routes (India-Africa, Central Asia overland options)

-. Prepare for detour scenarios in Haifa-linked lanes

🔵 Reassess Contract Structures

-. Review terms with carriers, forwarders, and airlines

-. Introduce variable contracts that factor in freight and insurance volatility

🔵 Inventory & Warehousing Realignment

-. Pre-secure inventory during rate peaks → establish safety stock strategies

-. Multi-node distribution to mitigate last-mile risk

🔵 Leverage FTAs & Customs Optimization

-. Activate preferential routes via US-UK, EU-ASEAN, and other agreements

-. Maximize duty relief mechanisms

🔵 Invest in Visibility & Tech Infrastructure

-. Deploy real-time freight analytics tools (e.g., Freightos, Xeneta)

-. Integrate TMS/WMS to enhance cross-border visibility

➃ Market Impact | How Is the Market Reacting?

-. B2B sellers report booking delays from mid-June onward

-. Major U.S. retailers completed early back-to-school shipments

-. SME importers shift to air freight despite cost, eroding margin

-. European brands now stockpiling in Poland/Czechia for secondary dispatching

※ The market now values “guaranteed arrival later” more than “cheap shipping now.”

➄ Competitor Matrix | What Are Key Players Doing?

Company	Strategy	Notes
Maersk	Suspended Haifa ops, added Arabian Sea detour	Risk-hedged contracts, safety-first operations
MSC	PSS added for EU lanes, booking controls	Tight capacity management to retain margins
Amazon	Pre-stock in U.S., expanded internal shipping	Bolstering fulfillment & logistics independence
Samsung SDS	Redesigned Middle East routes, via Turkey	Testing overland TIR-enabled corridors
SME Forwarders	Real-time freight alert tools launched	Customer-centric visibility and responsiveness focus

➅ Beyond the Numbers | What’s the Real Signal?

-. FBX index has softened but remains volatile → may spike again

-. U.S. tariff reinstatement likely to spark polarized inventory behaviors

-. Marine insurers to re-price risk globally starting Q3 2025

“Logistics cost” is no longer just about freight — it’s risk management capital.

➆ Summary Insight | Key Takeaways

-. Geopolitics shape lanes; prices shake up networks.

-. While short-term peak rates may subside, structural uncertainty deepens.

-. H2 2025 logistics strategy must emphasize redundant routes & contingency-driven contracts.

-. Multimodal transport (air, sea, rail, road) will become standard.

-. Real-time data, system visibility, and planning agility will define winners.